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Union Berlin vs FC Koln

Fri 30 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 44.5%

Draw: 26.3%

FC Koln win: 29.2%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.73

More corners: Union Berlin (59.4% home / 40.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Union Berlin

Yes

Probability Union Berlin wins or draws: 59.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 29%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Union Berlin (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Union Berlin win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.